Who’s likely to hit 800 home runs?

ESPN – Neyer: Who’s chasing Bonds? – MLB

Rob Neyer runs Bill James’ Favorite Toy to see who among active players has a chance of hitting 800 career home runs, figuring that’s why it will take to overtake Barry Bonds ultimate career total.
Alex Rodriguez has almost a 50-50 chance of someday breaking the 800 barrier. (And even a 7 percent chance of some day hitting 1,000!) The trick for him will be maintaining his health. One injury-ridden or missed season will set him back a great deal.

Ryan Howard has a 7% chance of breaking 800, but his late start in the majors (he didn’t reach the majors full-time until he was 25) sets him back a great deal.

Read the whole article to see who else has a shot and why.

I am shocked, shocked by this allegation…

Playboy Mansion at center of sexual assault claim – Yahoo! News

The Los Angeles Police Dept. said on Wednesday it was investigating an allegation of sexual assault at the Playboy Mansion, the famed site of unabashed hedonism for more than 30 years.

News reports said the alleged incident took place at the weekend during a pajama party hosted by Playboy magazine’s 81-year-old founder, Hugh Hefner, who has lived and worked at the expansive property since 1971.

I can’t believe that an organization that promotes the objectification of women and their reduction to sexual objects for men’s pleasue might have been the source of a sexual assault. It boggles the mind.

Quote of the Day

“For example. If the system be established on basis of Income, and his just proportion on that scale has been already drawn from every one, to step into the field of Consumption, and tax special articles in that, as broadcloth or homespun, wine or whiskey, a coach or a wagon, is doubly taxing the same article. For that portion of Income with which these articles are purchased, having already paid its tax as Income, to pay another taz on the thing it purchased, is paying twice for the same thing; it is an aggrievance on the citizens who use these articles in exoneration of those who do not, contrary to the most sacred of the duties of a government, to do equal and impartial justice to all its citizens.”

— Thomas Jefferson (letter to Joseph Milligan, 6 April 1816)

Reference: The Writings of Thomas Jefferson, Memorial Edition, Lipscomb and Bergh, eds., vol. 14 (465)